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Daily Stock Watch – The UMA Box Toppers Part 2

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Happy Holidays, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! We'll continue where we left off last week as I talk about more box toppers that I think are great pickups now, and I'll continue next time with the ones that I think are not good to invest on.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ancient Tomb

Every Commander deck (multiplayer that is) almost has this on their lists because of sheer power level. Have you ever played against something like this on turn one?

Drive you Nuts

Play a turn one Ancient Tomb followed by [card]Mana Crypt then Sol Ring to cast Paradox Engine, then go bananas by dropping the Lotus Petal and sequencing the casting of Grim Monolith and Basalt Monolith properly to unleash Kozilek, Butcher of Truth and start a crazy chain that let's you go off with so much mana (or infinite if you draw Rings of Brighthearth on the same turn. Seems too odd to happen in real life? It does. And take note that we only accounted for seven cards here when you always have eight on your first turn in multiplayer Commander if you didn't mulligan. Of course, this is only one example of the things that [card]Ancient Tomb[card] could go crazy with in that format. Don't forget its relevance in Legacy as well. An absolutely great pickup at its current price of $140.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn Liberated

I intentionally didn't include this in the first article because I think it's not really that great right now. Tron hasn't been that impressive as of late, and pretty much where Ugin, the Spirit Dragon goes, this one goes. Is $197 for the box topper version of this card justified? For as long as it's under $200, then I guess it is. Probably something you might want to get at around $150-$170, but wouldn't hurt if you're into planeswalkers and playing all foil Modern decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Noble Hierarch

It seems like it wasn't so long ago when the RPTQ version of this card was released, and here comes another foiled version of the card. This reprint didn't actually seem to hurt its stock a lot, as it has stayed at close to $60 due to high demand and somehow reminiscent of how Aether Vial managed to stay afloat despite the IMA reprint. The box topper version at $126 over that of the RPTQ at $85? Pretty close to call. It boils down to preference in my opinion but if you're after class, my vote goes to this one. It helps that the box toppers card quality is pretty good.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Engineered Explosives

It's crazy how a card hits $100 then suddenly just dips to $90 as a box topper upgrade. Supply really does wonders to a card's price, and it's no surprise that this one got hit by that factor as well. People might be overselling a bit because of the sudden price dip, but real players know how important this card is to their sideboards. I've sold 12 copies of this after opening 20 boxes right on the day I posted them (normal copies sold for $33 fairly easily) and I guess we could expect the box topper price to rebound someday to $120-$150 if I'm being realistic. Pick them up now while they are in this price range.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaddock Teeg

My last pick and probably the surprise pick from all the good ones that I think will work is this old dude. At $55, I think that the box topper is an absolute steal considering how good this card is across multiple formats. The lack of supply probably was the reason why it tanked hard before and rose up to $55 for the normal copies, but over supply now doesn't mean that there's no room for its premium to be good pick ups. This will rebound pretty well someday, and along with its normal price will be the surge of the topper version as well. Grab a playset at least while it's this low. I don't see this getting any lower than $50 anytime soon.

And that’s it for the second part of this special edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we continue my review of the box toppers from the UMA set that I think will be bad pick ups for now. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Merry Christmas, everyone!

Studying the Market Cap of Magic

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A simple economic equation has got me thinking this week about the common phrase “a rising tide lifts all ships.” I throw this expression around a great deal in explaining why any card price increase is healthy for Magic, but perhaps a deeper explanation is warranted.

In my mind, it all boils down to calculation of the market cap of Magic. If this was a Wall Street type article, I would simply use the product of a stock’s price and the number of shares of that stock to calculate the market cap. For example, Hasbro (HAS) stock closed last Friday at $78.11. There are 126.5 million shares available. Thus, the market cap is $78.11 * 126,500,000 = $9,880,915,000, approximately $9.9 billion.

Thus, when the stock price increases the market cap increase proportionally. Should Hasbro issue new shares, the market cap could increase, but for the law of supply and demand—usually when new shares are issued by a company, its stock price suffers a bit. The market cap can’t easily be manipulated due to the basic laws of economics.

Magic Market Cap

Calculating the market cap of Magic isn’t so easily determined. I would define it as the sum of the product of each card and its respective price. In fancy mathematical terms, this would be:

 

Its form isn’t that much more complex, as one only needs to take into account the summation across all cards. However due to the extremely large pool of cards that exist across all printings, this calculation is best left to those with a sophisticated database. I can’t begin to estimate the number. I can, however, do some simple math to create a lower limit for the number.

Consider Alpha for starters: 1100 of each rare printed. We know that number. So taking the top 20 most expensive cards from Alpha and multiplying by their price, we can already see how high the number gets. The tricky thing is, pricing varies so heavily on condition—let’s use Card Kingdom’s VG price as an attempt to pick a centered point since there’s no way of guessing the condition of every copy that exists.

This calculation yields $129,558,000. Then you need to account for the rest of Alpha, and then every other set that exists. Do you see how difficult the calculation becomes? To compound the complexity, the print runs of all but the oldest sets are unknown quantities, thus it’s impossible to precisely determine this number. Then there’s all the sealed product that is on the secondary market, which also adds up to a sizable chunk.

Still, if the 20 most expensive cards from Alpha already give us over $100 million in market cap, I have to imagine the total market cap of Magic is well into the billions. Beta probably contributes a similar amount to Alpha, and Unlimited wouldn’t be that far behind. Arabian Nights, Legends, and Antiquities would yield another large number. Let’s say these add up to $600 million.

Then you have Revised dual lands: with 289,000 Underground Seas printed and an average price of around $400, you get another $100 million from just one card! Then add up all the other duals, and you’ve got another half a billion dollars.

Then you get the highly printed cards that are still worth significant dough. Jace, the Mind Sculptor may only be worth $85 or so, but can you imagine how many exist?! Between Worldwake, From the Vault: 20, Masters 25, and Eternal Masters, there must be a ton in existence.  To buy out TCGplayer alone would cost you upwards of $30,000 and that’s for one, new card!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Taken in total, the market cap of Magic may be the same order of magnitude as the market cap of Hasbro, the maker of Magic!

So What?

Why am I rambling on about this calculation? Because I believe it provides a fundamental basis for understanding why the price of Magic cards—especially those that aren’t reprinted or made obsolete—will continue to move upward and to the right.

Think about it. We just got a ton of new reprints with Ultimate Masters, and the box toppers provide even more infused cash into the market. Yet despite the huge increase in supply on key staples like Ancient Tomb, the price hasn’t really dropped as much as I would have expected.

If the supply of a given card doubles but its price does not drop in half, the resulting market cap of that card increases. If that happens enough over a given set, the net impact to Magic’s market cap increases.

Then you have non-reprint sets, such as new Commander sets. These introduce many reprints, sure, but they also introduce many new cards with nonzero value. They also may inspire Commander players to build new decks, thus generating new demand without increasing supply (Commander players don’t often take apart decks to sell cards).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Yuriko, the Tiger's Shadow

You also have the fact that stores are selling every new product at a profit, giving them more cash to buy singles with, host tournaments, etc. These all help generate demand and increase the market cap of Magic. Each of these products introduces new “value” into the market. Over time, these values add up and lead to a higher market cap for the game. After all, it’s not like the release of Guilds of Ravnica will have any negative impact on demand for, say, Apocalypse cards. We’re talking largely incremental value here.

Largest Ships Benefit Most

Imagine you were fortunate enough to acquire a box of Ultimate Masters for $250 during one of the eBay sales. You cracked open your product and discovered $300 worth of cards including a sweet box topper. What’s your first step?

Well, if you want the cards yourself, you would keep them all—this introduces no new supply to the market, and that $250 you sank into Magic remains part of the game’s “market cap.”

What if you decide to sell all the cards, though? You would net your $300, and then have a decision to make. You could be content with $300 and use that on non-Magic stuff. But if you’re reading this article, chances are you’re going to use your freshly earned profits to buy different cards. You could buy other new cards—perhaps you want to build a Standard deck.

Though, Standard decks rotate, so you’ll need to sell those Standard cards eventually (or else eat the cost). Then you’ll have to put that money elsewhere yet again. It is my belief that, ultimately, after all the dust settles, this money goes into cards for play in non-rotating formats. This is the best way to park value without having to worry about Standard rotation.

Let’s say you go for some Modern or Commander staples—you have a new concern: reprints! The perpetual risk of reprints means if you want to avoid losing money on your investments, you’ll have to constantly be shifting your collection. And selling a bunch of Modern staples just before a reprint set like Ultimate Masters means you once again have the same decision in front of you: where do you put that newfound cash to work?

If your primary income comes from buying and selling Magic cards, maybe the time shifting your collection is well spent. Perhaps you are not yet married with kids, and have plenty of free time to juggle a large, diverse inventory—this will surely maximize your profits. But as time goes on and life gets in the way, this no longer becomes a viable approach.

Thus, we have the ultimate: Reserved List cards and collectible cards that don’t care about reprints. These never lose value due to reprint and never become obsolete (e.g. Juzám Djinn isn’t a good card, but that doesn’t hurt its price).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Juzám Djinn

These older cards are the ultimate place to park MTG money as the market cap of Magic expands. It may take a long time—we’re talking over the course of years—but at the end of the day, I believe this is where most of Magic’s market cap will continue to funnel.

As long as that happens, prices of things like Power, Duals, Alpha and Beta cards, etc. will continue to climb disproportionately as compared to new, reprintable cards. This is why Underground Sea went from $190 to $630 over the past five years, while Jace, the Mind Sculptor remained flat ($100 to $100).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea

In the short term, you can definitely make more money dealing in newer cards. But if you don’t have a lot of time to juggle a collection nowadays, you can do no better than to park money in the classics. Everyone knows this, and it’s why these cards remain such strong, liquid investments.

Wrapping It Up

Here’s a simple summary for my thought process:

  1. Magic has a market cap just like stocks, and I believe its valued in the billions of dollars much like its owner, Hasbro.
  2. Every time WotC releases a new set, it increases that market cap, by generating new demand for cards and putting more money in retailers’ pockets to further fuel the engine.
  3. As these profits are made with each new set, they often get filtered into other cards.
  4. While this could be Standard or Modern cards, I believe format rotation and reprints make these investments shorter-term in nature. Thus, they need to be sold again, with proceeds put in yet a different place.
  5. As the player base ages, fewer people will have time to juggle collections in this way.
  6. For those with little time or desire to sell cards frequently, the best place to park money is in Magic’s oldest sets: Alpha through The Dark, along with key Reserved List cards.
  7. Therefore, as the market cap of Magic grows the rising tide will lift the largest ships the most. That’s where I want to be.

It all boils down to a fairly straightforward approach, and it is why I focus where I do. Hopefully the explanation makes sense and the arguments hold.

If not, feel free to engage with me in the Insider Discord, where I frequently join in discussion on anything related to Magic finance. Or join fellow Quiet Speculation writer Edward Eng and I this upcoming Thursday, 9pm Eastern Time, for a live Office Hours session where we answer Insider questions. Hope to see you there!

ring

Sigbits

  • Did you know Unlimited Birds of Paradise are worth a crazy amount of money? At least, it’s crazy in my opinion. They’re not even black bordered! Yet Card Kingdom has low stock on the card and advertises $168 for near mint copies on its hotlist. I wish I had kept my playset from years past!
  • I didn’t mention these in my article, but buying high-end Expeditions and box toppers could be another sound long-term investment strategy. They could always be trumped by some newer and cooler reprint, so I avoid them myself. But there’s no denying how hot they are right now. Card Kingdom has a ton of these on their hotlist right now. Some examples include Mox Opal ($170), Liliana of the Veil ($200), Cavern of Souls ($145), and Snapcaster Mage ($135).
  • I still check Card Kingdom’s hotlist daily, but I haven’t seen a ton of movement this past week—that makes sense given the holiday timing. One card that did suddenly make an appearance is Ring of Ma'rûf from Arabian Nights. I noticed their buy price of $70 this past weekend and was temporarily tempted to ship my copy. Then I realized these have climbed on TCGplayer more than I had realized, and that $70 for near mint copies wasn’t as great a buy price as I originally thought. It should climb higher.

Places, Everyone: Spectacle in Hollow Phoenix

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Instant/sorcery support? Cost-reduction mechanics? Cheap card draw for aggressive strategies? Light Up the Stage, a card with spectacle spoiled from Ravnica Allegiance this week, hits all my soft spots, yanking me from a haze of Inkling up-smashes and Richter side-specials to brew anew.

Today, I'll share my findings on Light Up the Stage in what I consider a natural home: Hollow Phoenix.

"Random" Looting Effects Are Not Random

A major complaint of Hollow One newcomers is the deck's randomness. Sometimes that turn-one Inquiry yields a couple Ones and an automatic victory; others, it discards the Golems and mana-screws its pilot! Before we jump into a whole article dealing with Hollow One, I want to give my two cents on this idea.

"Random," like all descriptors, can only exist in relation to its environment. And the opposite of random is consistent. So where does Hollow One sit on the random-consistent spectrum? Despite the literal presence of the word "random" in the rules text of archetype staples Burning Inquiry and Goblin Lore, I'd argue that the strategy is among Modern's most consistent, or least random, gameplans—and that its success in the format supports this theorem.

Burning Inquiry (and Lore) has many more subtle effects in Hollow One than its rules text alludes to alone. That text reads: "draw 3 (random) cards; discard 3 random cards." The cards Inquiry draws and discards vary wildly between resolutions—random! But in Hollow One, the card also has the following effects:

  • Reduce the cost of all your Hollow Ones to 0
  • Give your prowess creatures +1/+1
  • Give your Flameblade Adepts +3/+0

The above three clauses are guaranteed (read: not random) effects of Burning Inquiry. On top of all those effects, Inquiry has the added potential benefit of discarding Arclight Phoenix or Fiery Temper, yielding even more explosive plays. And should BR
Hollow One discard its Golem, it's likely to have Gurmag Angler as a backup plan, just as Mono-Red keeps Bedlam Reveler on call.

Finally, there's the age-old tactic of sandbagging useless lands in hand until a looting effect is found. Since the pilot chooses when to cast these spells, they can be timed so that probability dictates a net hand improvement.

Compared with something like Serum Visions, which always draws one card and scries 2, Burning Inquiry in Hollow One decks removes significantly more variance by enabling multiple gameplans. Just as creatureless control decks are built to functionally remove the symmetry of sweepers like Wrath of God, Hollow One decks are built in such a way that random looting effects drastically increase their consistency, in turn lowering their "randomness."

Light Up the Stage

At a glance, Light Up the Stage seems like a card that wants to slot into an aggressive red deck, where it would keep the cards flowing and the pressure on. But it still needs to fulfill needed roles for those decks. The bar is quite high, as Arclight Phoenix strategies are already among Modern's top performers. The other aggressive red deck is Burn, which is generally less proactive and easier to hate out than the Arclight decks, and whose own performance has subsequently taken a dip. We'll start there.

Stage in Burn

Burn was happy to go as far as splashing another color for Treasure Cruise, an obvious precedent for Stage. Cruise costs one mana and draws three cards on the condition pilots keep a stocked graveyard. Stage, for its part, costs one mana and draws two cards on the condition pilots have already dealt
damage this turn and can use the cards drawn by the end of their next turn. In terms of raw numbers, that's one fewer card with one more condition attached. But the latter condition isn't so tough to meet, as Burn is full of one
drops. Stage's primary drawback—its spectacle condition—boasts some palpable tension with Burn's haste creatures, which incentivize players to cast draw spells before combat.

Stage has another precedent: Bedlam Reveler. Here's a card that also draws 3 and was discussed as possible in Burn. It costs twice as much mana as Cruise, but players get a whopping 3/4 prowess for their trouble, and multiple Revelers are easier to chain than multiple Cruises. While Reveler did appear in Burn sideboards occasionally, it quickly vanished from the archetype's repertoire, to be seen again beside Faithless Looting in midrange decks a year later.

When it comes to Burn, then, Stage may be adopted if its power level there sits between Cruise (good enough) and Reveler (not). But like both cards, it's fully possible a shell exists that can wield Stage more adeptly than Burn. I think that shell is Hollow Phoenix.

Stage in Phoenix

Stage looks to be even more comfortable in a deck with Arclight Phoenix: not only does it constitute an instant/sorcery for the creature's trigger, it draws pilots into additional spells and contributes to the deck's velocity. The question to ask, then, becomes whether Arclight Phoenix is interested in drawing more cards; it already has a more impactful option in Bedlam Reveler, which many builds don't even play.

I'd argue that these decks aren't particularly hungry for another draw spell. But more velocity couldn't hurt; we've seen various builds include the likes of Street Wraith, Goblin Lore, and the aptly named Maximize Velocity to achieve those ends. At its best, Stage plays like a mix of Phoenix's most efficient velocity spells: Faithless Looting and Manamorphose. It draws into business like the former, and ensures multiples instant/sorcery casts like the latter.

Running Stage isn't totally free, though; doing so requires some deckbuilding compromises to accommodate spectacle reliably. The direction I took involved maxing out on aggressive one-drops. These creatures start swinging out of the gate: Flameblade Adept has menace, ensuring a poke should it survive, and Monastery Swiftspear hits the turn it's cast to set up spectacle on the go. Both creatures hit like a ton of bricks for their cost, assuming a deck construction that keeps both in mind.

While a slew of cheap red spells do a fine job of maximizing Swiftspear, Adept demands a more unique supporting cast, notably Burning Inquiry and Hollow One. The artifact also has some interesting applications with Stage: exiling it to the sorcery lets us Burning Inquiry to our heart's content without fear of discarding our namesake creature, and exiling lands lets us play those, keeping Mountains in hand to lower the chances of discarding freshly-found Hollow Ones.

The rest of the deck's first draft wrote itself, and a week of tweaking the components led me here:

Hollow Phoenix, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Flameblade Adept
4 Arclight Phoenix
4 Hollow One
1 Grim Lavamancer
1 Bedlam Reveler

Instants

4 Manamorphose
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Fiery Temper
3 Gut Shot

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
4 Burning Inquiry
3 Light Up the Stage

Lands

17 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Tormod's Crypt
3 Shrine of Burning Rage
2 Dragon's Claw
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Abrade
1 Dismember
1 Bedlam Reveler

Card Choices and Engine Possibilities

This deck's numbers may look simple and intuitive, but arriving at them proved anything but. The flex spots were, and are still, in constant flux throughout my testing sessions. I think there are three types of cards in Hollow Phoenix: enablers, payoffs, and disruption. In this section, we'll look at the different roles each card plays, as well as other options in each category.

As may become evident from my card choices, the above build aims to maximize its explosive starts, and the odds of its pieces meshing in the first few turns of the game. It hopes this strong start will carry it through a potentially meandering mid-game in which ill-fitting pieces are drawn naturally, although cards like Faithless Looting mitigate the durdle.

Enablers

Let's start with the staples. These are cards whose numbers never faltered in my testing:

4 Faithless Looting
4 Burning Inquiry
4 Manamorphose

Manamorphose practically guarantees a Phoenix rebirth on three mana, is free off Stage, and triggers prowess. Looting is also likely to reanimate Phoenix, digs through excess lands, and further supports our payoffs by dumping Phoenix or Temper into the graveyard. Inquiry is simply the most efficient enabler in Modern when it comes to Hollow and Adept, both four-ofs, and has the random upside of sometimes ruining enemy hands and binning the right payoffs on our end.

Onto the flex spots:

3 Light Up the Stage
3 Gut Shot

I ended up settling on 3 Stage after doing roughly 70% of my testing at 4. Towards the end, I realized Stage excelled when cast on turn three and later. Waiting this long gives us the chance to hard-cast exiled Phoenixes. By turn three, we also have the ability to cast three spells for Phoenix without a zero-mana instant. A sequence like Bolt you, Stage, Looting discarding Phoenix is par for the course at that point in the game.

Running Stage out early is possible when we're in need of lands, which can also be played from exile. But relying too heavily on the cantrip for this purpose can yield some awkward exiles forever lost to mana screw, so it's best to wait when given the option. That makes the card closer to Bedlam Reveler, another late-game payoff spell, but Stage has the distinction of serving as an enabler for many of our pieces (including Reveler) in the early- and mid-game.

While Stage does a fine Manamorphose impression for Phoenix on turns 3+, Gut Shot fills in for Manamorphose when it most needs to: earlier. Another free instant, Gut proves integral to powering out Phoenix before opponents can muster the tools to deal with our assault or assemble a functioning gameplan through our many burn spells. It also supports both "halves" of Light Up a Stage: Gut lets us cast it as early as the first turn to search for lands, and is an always-castable exile off the sorcery.

I also tested plenty of enablers that didn't work out. Here's a quick summary of each.

  • Maximize Velocity: Did too little at too steep a cost. Taxing us a red mana per cast doesn't "ramp" us into Phoenix as zero-mana instants do, and since we tend to rely on the discard to play Hollow One, it rarely gives the 4/4 haste. Besides, eight of our threats already have the evergreen keyword.
  • Flame Jab: I liked the idea of reliable damage to turn on Stage, but in practice, Jab also did too little. Since early Stages like to find us lands, and late Stages are even fine at three mana, discarding a land rather than a card we wanted to pitch was also a tough ask.
  • Lightning Axe: Dead against too many decks to be worth it over a burn spell that fulfills more of our needed functions.
  • Lava Spike: Probably optimal in a build without Hollow One. Alongside the Golem and its engine cards, Spike has too much tension. I do expect such a build, which blends the Phoenix and Burn cores, to emerge post-Stage; I'm just not so interested in playing it myself.
  • Rift Bolt: Similar issues, but also too cute. Suspending it turn one, burning on upkeep, and then casting Stage in main 1 is about as fun as exiling Rift to Stage is miserable.
  • Pyretic Ritual: Like Spike and Rift, Ritual belongs in a different build than mine—one perhaps more combo-oriented and featuring Runaway Steam-Kin.
  • Street Wraith: Great with One, and we can support the life loss, but can't be cast off Stage.
  • Goblin Lore: The best of the reject enablers, Lore sets up Hollow and Adept without the minus or chance of fixing enemy hands. But it's so expensive that reviving Phoenix off it is impossible on three lands without one free spell, and impossible on two lands without double that. Lore is then best run with Gut Shot, but including both packages takes up too much room.

Payoffs

Again, the good:

4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Flameblade Adept
4 Arclight Phoenix
4 Hollow One

This deck's main payoffs are its threats. It runs eight "Delvers" (aggressive one-drops that put opponents on the back foot), which also enable Light Up the Stage as Wild Nacatl once did Chart a Course, and eight "Goyfs" (bigger beaters meant to clean up the mess and close out games). Of course, its gameplan is far more proactive than that of an actual Delver of Secrets deck.

The ugly...

1 Grim Lavamancer
1 Bedlam Reveler
3 Fiery Temper

With all the one-drops, we don't have room for many flex payoffs in this deck. I tried varying numbers of Lavamancer and Reveler, at times only running one or the other, and eventually settled on a split. The second copy of each is sometimes superfluous, and both offer free win dimensions against certain decks (the former vs. small creatures and the latter against classical midrange). I found that running either Lavamancer or Reveler at 3 or more copies necessitated an 18th land, which I oppose in this explosiveness-aligned build. Reveler in particular has some light tension with Stage in the early-game, where it's a dead exile like Phoenix.

Like the one-drops, Temper is a payoff that doesn't utilize the graveyard, but still rewards our loot effects. I especially like its applications with Phoenix, as it serves as another spell without putting us down a card (yet another thing Manamorphose does for free). More burn lets us attack from multiple angles and turns on spectacle in a pinch, but casting Temper from exile (er, not from madness) is a hassle.

Although Burning Inquiry can occasionally disrupt opponents, it might also fix their hand, and savvy opponents navigate the mid-game with it in mind by also sandbagging useless cards. So I don't really count it as interaction.

The bad!

  • Risk Factor: Three mana? thank u, next
  • Runaway Steam-Kin: Not bad per se, and a 4-of, then 3-of in my very first Light Up a Stage brew. I quickly learned I had no interest in ever casting this thing and walked away. (But imagine the Gut Shot wars!) To its credit, Risk Factor seemed decent alongside Steam-Kin.

Disruption

Most of our disruption is incidental, as the cards play other, more important roles. We're slower than pure combo decks like Storm, so it's critical that Hollow Phoenix runs enablers and payoffs that disrupt opponents in addition to supporting its gameplan (I like 10+ disruption slots).

4 Lightning Bolt
1 Grim Lavamancer
3 Fiery Temper
3 Gut Shot

The possible exception (and one card on this list we haven't yet discussed in detail) is Lightning Bolt, which is so efficient and flexible it often does act as an enabler (a cheap spell for Phoenix/prowess), or even as a payoff (drawing it off an Inquiry seals many a game), without offering any explicit synergy.

The Stage Is Set

I've been wildly off-base about spoilers before, but never have those cards been so apparently tailor-made for existing tier decks. So where does Hollow Phoenix go from here? Does it want the 4/4 at all? Are Phoenix decks better off pursuing a burn route with Lava Spike? A ritual route with Runaway Steam-Kin? Let me know your thoughts in the comments, and keep watching those Rakdos spoilers—if history has taught us anything, it's that freshly-designed cost-reduction mechanics often find a home in Modern!

Don’t Sleep on Basic Lands!

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This week I discovered a major blind-spot in my approach to Magic finance which has surely cost me money over the years. Simply becoming aware of it allowed me to immediately pull a ton of extra value from my bulk cards and profit from my newfound knowledge. I am sure there are others out there making the same mistake I was, so today I want to share what I learned.

What I’m talking about is basic lands, both foil and non-foil, of which it turns out many are very valuable. I always knew there were some foil lands with great art that were in high demand, but I didn’t realize just how many. There are a ton of foil lands from many sets that demand significantly more than the bulk rate, which is typically between $0.10 to $0.25 per foil basic land. Many of these lands are in high demand even for their non-foil versions, so bulk basic land boxes are worth picking through too.

My eyes were first opened up to the world of valuable basic lands when I was browsing a Facebook trade group and came across a post about a specific Foil Swamp 291 from Lorwyn, which demands $15 for mint foil versions.

Image result for Lorwyn Swamp 291

I knew the art looked familiar. When I scoured my bulk foil lands I found three copies, which together are worth nearly as much as my entire box of bulk foils would sell for to a dealer. The scary thing about the situation is that I've been trying to pawn off my bulk rares and foils on Craigslist for weeks—if someone bought my cards they would have handsomely profited from my ignorance.

What was most startling is that even nonfoil versions of the land sells for almost a dollar, and it's actually on buylists. An even more valuable land from Lorwyn is Island 287, foils of which are nearly $20.

Image result for Lorwyn Island 287

Nonfoil versions of these lands can’t be had any cheaper than $1 on TCGplayer, which puts them into the realm of Snow-Covered lands, which I always treated as the gold pickings of bulk lands.

There are actually many more valuable lands, and I am sure they are sitting unpicked in countless bulk cards around the world. I recently sold tens of thousands of picked bulk cards, including a few thousand land. Now I wonder just how much value I gave away in the form of basic lands I could have sold for very significant amounts.

These Lorwyn lands are so valuable both because of their great art, but also because of their relatively low supply. Lorwyn is notorious for a low print-run, and high prices in turn, because it was released right before the massive boom in Magic that came in the years following.

This provides clues as to what lands are valuable. These valuable lands are found in old sets, starting from when foil basics first appeared—with the release of Mercadian Masques in 1999—to the beginning of the Magic boom around Rise of Eldrazi in 2010.

Image result for Mirrodin Plains 290

I’ve always known about the “Razor Plains,” Mirrodin Plains 290. But it turns out that it isn’t even particularly valuable compared to other lands, only demanding a couple bucks, and there’s a ton of lands worth more.

The most impressive basic land I came across in my bulk was Odyssey Plains 333. Another iconic Plains, this one is worth nearly $25 foil. It’s worth an incredible $1.25 for the non-foil version, and no cheaper than $0.50 for even Heavily Played copies.

Image result for odyssey Plains 333

I was also surprised to learn that another land in Odyssey, Forest 349, was worth over $10 for foils, with nonfoils around $0.50.

Image result for odyssey Forest 349

John Avon is known for his stunning land artwork, so his lands often demand a premium. A good example is Invasion Plains 331, worth $8 for near-mint foils.

Image result for Invasion Plains 331

When I saw Shards of Alara Plains 233 I picked it because it because it looked cool, but I didn’t expect it would be worth over $5.

Image result for shards of Alara Plains 233

It turns out that a couple other lands from Shards of Alara are valuable too, with foils of Island 236 demanding near $10, and Swamp 238 around $8. Again, nonfoils of these lands are also worth far above bulk rate.

If you look at buylist prices for basic land in various sets, you’ll be surprised by how many have a land or two that are worth something significant. If you have any bulk lands, foil or otherwise, I recommend familiarizing yourself with the valuable lands and picking your bulk.

Even easier—just run your basic lands through Quiet Speculation's Ion Scanner, and you'll immediately know the best buylist price available for each. Even if you don't want to buylist the lands, it's a great way to identify and separate the good stuff from the true bulk.

-Adam

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Adam Yurchick

Adam started playing Magic in 1999 at age 12, and soon afterwards he was working his trade binder at school, the mall food court, FNM, and the Junior Super Series circuit. He's a long-time Pro Tour gravy-trainer who has competed in 26 Pro Tours, a former US National Team member, Grand Prix champion, and magic.tcgplayer.com columnist. Follow him at: http://twitter.com/adamyurchick

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Posted in Basic Lands, Bulk, Finance, Foils, Free, Picking4 Comments on Don’t Sleep on Basic Lands!

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MTG Metagame Finance #24

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Ultimate Masters is still in full bounce back mode, and the last World Magic Cup has come to a finish. Plus, some sweet Ravnica Allegiance spoilers have hit the market so there’s gonna be a nice mix of things to talk about again in this piece.

Owing to the spoilers, this might be a little more on the speculative side of things compared to previous articles where a lot of the content was based on tournament results and shift in the metagame.

Article Series Main Focus Points

  • Cards that you should hold on to or pick up for tournaments if you need them before they rise in price. These cards are either seeing increased play in one or more formats, the supply is drying up, or they’re pretty far from the next reprint.
  • Cards that you should consider selling or trading away. Their prices are pretty much at the ceiling owing to inflation from speculation, reprint inevitability in the near future, a lull in tournament play, or some combination of these.

Holds

Exquisite Firecraft - Magic Origins (Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Exquisite Firecraft

Target Purchase Price
Under $4

With UWx Control decks still being quite popular and also doing decently well in Modern and Legacy, some people have started to add this to their sideboards again. The price has pretty much remained flat since it rotated out of Standard about a couple of years ago but has started a slight rise in the past six months. I’m not sure if this will get reprinted anytime soon; but if it does, the price can’t really fall too much further.

Modern

Legacy

Recent Buys

Mortify - Magic Player Rewards

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mortify

Purchased Price
$3.50ish

This was recently spoiled as a reprint. If you haven’t seen the spoilers yet, be sure to check them out here. This is really a Standard-only card with an additional boost from quite a bit of play in EDH/Commander, showing up in over 17,000 decks.

However, I picked up a playset of these because this version will never get printed again. And Wizards will probably continue to reprint this once in a while in Standard. This is a sweet version of the card, especially if you don’t like foils.

Ral, Izzet Viceroy - Guilds of Ravnica (Non-Foil)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ral, Izzet Viceroy

Purchased Price
Under $5

This has really tumbled from it’s release price of $25. And I’ve had my eye on this card for Modern’s Izzet Phoenix. It actually shows up in quite a few decks in Modern.

The card also had a pretty good weekend at the World Magic Cup with it showing up on both sides of the table in the finals between Arnaud Hocquemiller and Shahar Shenhar.

Standard: Jeskai Control by Arnaud Hocquemiller

Non-Creature Spells

3 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria
1 Ral, Izzet Viceroy
1 Lava Coil
4 Deafening Clarion
2 Fight with Fire
4 Revitalize
1 Blink of an Eye
1 Syncopate
1 Negate
3 Ionize
4 Chemister's Insight
2 Settle the Wreckage
3 Expansion // Explosion
2 Seal Away
1 Ixalan's Binding
1 The Mirari Conjecture

Lands

4 Steam Vents
4 Sacred Foundry
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Sulfur Falls
4 Clifftop Retreat
3 Island
3 Plains

Sideboard

2 Lava Coil
1 Seal Away
1 Negate
1 Ixalan's Binding
1 Cleansing Nova
2 Star of Extinction
1 Niv-Mizzet, Parun
3 Legion Warboss
2 Lyra Dawnbringer

Standard: Izzet Drakes by Shahar Shenhar

Creatures

4 Crackling Drake
3 Enigma Drake
1 Murmuring Mystic
2 Niv-Mizzet, Parun

Non-Creature Spells

1 Beacon Bolt
4 Chart a Course
4 Lava Coil
3 Dive Down
4 Opt
4 Shock
3 Spell Pierce
4 Discovery // Dispersal
2 Search for Azcanta

Lands

7 Island
5 Mountain
1 Dragonskull Summit
4 Steam Vents
4 Sulfur Falls

Sideboard

1 Murmuring Mystic
1 Niv-Mizzet, Parun
4 Treasure Map
2 Disdainful Stroke
3 Fiery Cannonade
2 Ral, Izzet Viceroy
1 Star of Extinction
1 Shivan Fire

I think we’re going to see more of this card in Modern and Standard going forward. So I picked up a playset, especially since they’re only about $5 each now. There are a lot of copies on TCGplayer right now, and it doesn’t see play as a four-of; so I don’t expect the price to pop anytime soon. And if you want to splurge, the Mythic Edition under $35 seems like a pretty decent deal.

Watchlist

Nexus of Fate - Buy-A-Box Promos

Observed Price
$12-15

This has pretty much come back down to its lowest price even after the crazy spike during the Pro Tour 25th Anniversary. But now might be the time to pick it up again thanks to the spoiling of Growth Spiral.

Aside from it being two colors, this is an essential an upgrade to Explore, which could cause an uptick in decks like Scapeshift and Amulet Titan. I’ll get to those two decks next.

Primeval Titan - Grand Prix Promos

There was an error retrieving a chart for Primeval Titan

Observed Price
$19ish

There are five printings, but this is probably the coolest one. Thus, the price is a little higher than the other versions. But it’s hard to see the price of this go down much further if any at all ever again. It sank to about $10 once. But that happened about five years ago, and this is a promo so I would say that’s very unlikely to happen again.

This shows up in the aforementioned Scapeshift and Amulet Titan decks, so the demand is there. And as I mentioned, the demand could rise a bit with the printing of Growth Spiral. There isn’t really any countermagic in either deck, but there are still some instants that show up like Lightning Bolt, Abrade, Nature's Claim, and Ancient Grudge. Plus, Engineered Explosives and Walking Ballista sometimes also show up. So Growth Spiral gives the deck a bit more flexibility now on its opponent’s turn.

Modern: Scapeshift by Luis Gobern

Creatures

1 Wood Elves
4 Primeval Titan
4 Sakura-Tribe Elder

Non-Creature Spells

2 Summoner's Pact
3 Lightning Bolt
2 Anger of the Gods
4 Scapeshift
4 Farseek
4 Search for Tomorrow
1 Prismatic Omen
4 Relic of Progenitus

Lands

1 Sheltered Thicket
2 Forest
2 Cinder Glade
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Stomping Ground
4 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
6 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Flame Slash
3 Damping Sphere
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Carnage Tyrant
1 Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Nature's Claim
2 Abrade
1 Thragtusk
2 Obstinate Baloth
1 Hour of Devastation

Modern: Amulet Titan by Loriwwa

Creatures

1 Walking Ballista
2 Trinket Mage
2 Skyshroud Ranger
4 Primeval Titan
4 Azusa, Lost but Seeking
4 Sakura-Tribe Scout

Non-Creature Spells

1 Pact of Negation
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Ancient Stirrings
1 Engineered Explosives
4 Amulet of Vigor
4 Relic of Progenitus

Lands

1 Boros Garrison
1 Sunhome, Fortress of the Legion
1 Slayers' Stronghold
1 Radiant Fountain
1 Khalni Garden
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Cavern of Souls
1 Vesuva
1 Bojuka Bog
2 Grove of the Burnwillows
3 Forest
3 Tolaria West
4 Gemstone Mine
4 Gruul Turf
4 Simic Growth Chamber

Sideboard

1 Tormod's Crypt
1 Tireless Tracker
1 Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Ramunap Excavator
1 Obstinate Baloth
1 Hornet Queen
1 Emrakul, the Promised End
1 Academy Ruins
4 Abrade
1 Pact of Negation
1 Engineered Explosives

Ultimate Box Toppers

I just wanted to spend a little bit a time talking about these specifically since a lot of the regular cards have already bounced back. If you want to read more about that, I suggest checking out Sigmund Ausfresser’s article.

Anyhow, the box toppers that kind of stick out to me are Fulminator Mage and Life from the Loam. They both see quite a bit of play and neither of them have a promo version. And they’re both significantly cheaper than many of the other box toppers.

Fulminator Mage - Ultimate Masters: Box Toppers

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fulminator Mage

Life from the Loam - Ultimate Masters: Box Toppers

There was an error retrieving a chart for Life from the Loam

I’m having a hard time with these. I think because I’m not really that big of a fan of them. But I’m pretty sure I’m an outlier. Over time, I think most of these will just continue to go up in price, since many of them have new art or are the only ‘full art’ version. I think Wizards could’ve made the full art design a bit more pronounced, but that’s just my opinion.

Anyhow, I think if you really want them, it’s pretty hard to go wrong with picking these up as they’ll most likely hold their value and continue to appreciate over the years.

Office Hours

Office Hours #4 is coming up, and I’ll be co-hosting it with Sigmund Ausfresser. You can catch the audio of Office Hours #3 with Sigmund Ausfresser and me here in case you missed it.

Office Hours #4 is set for Thursday, December 27 at 8p Central, so mark your calendars and join us in the Discord channel if you have a Quiet Speculation membership subscription.

Office Hours

Public Spreadsheet

Stay up to the minute on what I’m looking at on a daily basis via the Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em - Public MTG Finance Spreadsheet. Don’t forget to bookmark it, because I update it on the fly. This way you can see what’s going on as the market moves and before articles about certain cards are published.

Summary

Holds

  • Exquisite Firecraft - Magic Origins (Foil)

Recent Buys

  • Mortify - Magic Player Rewards
  • Ral, Izzet Viceroy - Guilds of Ravnica (Non-Foil)

Watchlist

  • Nexus of Fate - Buy-A-Box Promos
  • Primeval Titan - Grand Prix Promos

Ultimate Masters: Box Toppers

  • Fulminator Mage - Ultimate Masters: Box Toppers
  • Life from the Loam - Ultimate Masters: Box Toppers

Office Hours

Public Spreadsheet

Hold ‘Em & Fold ‘Em Spreadsheet

Let me know what you think in the comments below. Agree? Disagree? Why? You can also connect with me on Twitter at @edwardeng. I’m also open to suggestions on how to make this series more valuable. Hit me up.

Have fun,
Eddie

When Collection Buys Go Bad

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Welcome back, readers!

With the release of Ultimate Masters (UMA) and the insanely quick price rebounds we've been seeing on many of the hot staples, I almost feel like my last article has been nullified. But I stand by the research and data trends calculated based on previous Masters sets. I feel like Ultimate Masters may prove to be the anomaly simply because it was jam-packed with highly desirable cards for all formats.

I have been buying UMA cards like crazy the past week, but not all buys go smoothly. Today's article will help you steer through the murky waters that can occur when money is on the line.

Set Clear Expectations

Setting your expectations at the outset may seem extremely obvious. However, both buying and selling parties are coming at the transaction from different viewpoints, and what seems obvious to one may be ambiguous to the other.

I once drove 45 minutes to meet a gentleman who had posted his collection for sale on Craigslist at a gas station off of the interstate. His ad stated that he'd been playing since the early days of Magic and had quit after Kamigawa block. I didn't ask to see pictures and assumed that there would be some hidden gems in his collection. Once I scrolled through his binders I realized that it was all the chaff of a collection that had been picked over. We both left the transaction unfulfilled.

Get a Photo First

There is a reason the old saying, "A picture is worth a thousand words," is quoted so often. If you are going to spend time and effort buying a collection, getting pictures of as much as you can ahead of time can save you a great deal of disappointment, wasted time, and gasoline. You can often glean a lot about a potential collection even from a few pictures.

These pictures are from a recent collection I looked at. They show that the cards may be on the older spectrum, there may be a lot of foreign-language cards included, and the owner has likely taken at least somewhat good care of them. This collection may or may not be organized, and if it isn't then it's likely to take longer to dig through.

Be Upfront About Pricing

You also need to be upfront about your intentions for buying. This day and age, almost every Magic player has access to the internet and can look up prices on their cards. You will often find people who aren't used to selling cards aghast that you won't pay full retail price on their cards. If they aren't aware of that ahead of time, the conversation and transaction can quickly go sour.

In another example, a local player I knew posted on Facebook that he was looking to downsize his collection and wanted to sell cards between 50-70% off. I drove over to his house and spent over an hour combing through his binders and boxes, all the while placing the cards I was interested in onto a buy mat. I told him to check over each price point and pull out anything he didn't want to sell at that price.

Once I had finished, he looked through the piles and then proceeded to put every card into MTG Familiar and then pushed back on my pricing stating he was aiming more for 70%. I reminded him that his post stated 50-70%, but he remained adamant. The lesson here is that ambiguity is not your friend when it comes to business dealings.

To try and prevent this kind of misunderstanding, I always mention ahead of time that I am buying for my store inventory and that I can't pay full retail on any cards. I am willing to purchase a lot of different types of cards, which allows the seller to move their wares in a single transaction. This cuts down on the amount of time they have to spend finding buyers, as well as the cost of shipping.

My buying system now incorporates a Google Sheet with information and equations built in, allowing me to automate as much as I can. I usually request a list of the cards my seller wants to move ahead of time, so I can look up the prices to make the transaction quicker and smoother. I provide pricing per card, as opposed to some stores which offer a lump sum, to allow my seller to consider each price individually and show that I am not trying to cheat them.

It Doesn't Always Work Out

As I mentioned earlier, not all buys will work out. Sometimes the seller wants too much for their cards; sometimes the cards aren't as expected. While it can feel bad to leave a potential buy without purchasing anything, it is far worse to do so with an upset or angry seller.

When it becomes evident that a sale simply will not occur, remember that your reputation as a buyer is built over time, but it can be destroyed in an instant. I always thank the seller for their time and for giving me the opportunity to browse their collection, parting ways on positive terms. This prevents me from developing a reputation as a pushy buyer and keeps the door open for future transactions.

Be Prepared for Pushback

This past year is the first one that I have actually posted buylists on various Facebook groups. This allowed me to greatly expand my buying potential and has opened up a massive realm of potential sellers. This means I am openly competing with a lot more buyers for purchases. It also means I occasionally get negative comments in my posts from random people who feel that my prices are too low and that I'm trying to "rip people off."

Most buy/sell groups tend to weed these types of commentators out, but you still see them from time to time. These tend to be the same people who would expect TCGplayer mid prices when selling a card—but in any case, it can still make you look and feel bad.

The important point to remember is that your prices need to be high enough that you seem like the best option for someone looking to sell, but low enough to generate a profit worth your effort. You may also run into people who want to haggle on your prices. While you always want to make sure you can make a profit, flexibility can be critical when it comes to buying cards on a time crunch.

This happened to me repeatedly when I posted my UMA buylist. I've learned that when prices are fluctuating upward repeatedly, you want to lock in your stock as soon as possible. Rigid pricing can cause you to miss out on opportunities that would have been quite profitable in the near future.

Conclusion

While I imagine some of these pointers may seem quite obvious, I try to remember that we have speculators of varying experience and it can be very unnerving to enter the minefield that is Magic: The Gathering finance.

It is easy for those of us who have been wandering this field for a long time to forget we didn't always know the obvious truths we do now—which may have come at a steep price. If we can prevent some of our newer members from paying that price, then we are acting as responsible QS members.

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David Schumann

David started playing Magic in the days of Fifth Edition, with a hiatus between Judgment to Shards. He's been playing Commander since 2009 and Legacy since 2010.

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Posted in Buying, Collection Buying, Finance, Free3 Comments on When Collection Buys Go Bad

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Daily Stock Watch – The UMA Box Toppers Part 1

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Hello, everyone and welcome to the return of the Daily Stock watch! I was out for a while to attend to some personal stuff and we're back with a vengeance, as I'll be doing a review of some fun stuff before the year ends. For this initial write up, I'll be focusing on the Ultimate Masters box toppers and what I think are great going forward. It might be arguable that each and everyone of them are great but then again, finance junkies like us are supposed to focus on the ones that really matter. If the toppers aren't your thing, Sigmund Ausfresser can guide you a bit further on the things to look out for in UMA in this article.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana Of The Veil

LotV will never go down no matter how much WotC decides to reprint it. The card is just too good at three mana, and the ability to play it on turn two makes it ultra hard to beat in any format. But is the $299 box topper price justifiable at the moment? I would say yes to that if you are into that kind of thing. Teferi, Hero of Dominaria is almost just as good and its mythic edition version has been doing well along this price range. There might be room for it to drop to around $250, but I'm not sure about it. I won't be taking my chances if I am a collector for that time to come. Invest now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf

I was just talking about how this card keeps on getting reprinted, but we have to give props to WotC because they gave him a facelift just now. Back in the day, the $200 price tag for a premium Tarmogoyf would be a bit low but considering how many times this has been printed (and will still be printed) makes it seem like a decent price. I would be a buyer at $150, but I don't think it would go down that low.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Snapcaster Mage

At $209, I think that this is the best topper from this set. Any competitive blue deck almost always packs four copies of this, and its power level covers all formats. It was never deemed a bannable card despite of its greatness and that will always factor in when we consider cards that we should invest on. I'm a buyer at the current price tag, as I think that there is a higher ceiling for this card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Vault

I have a soft spot for cards that are faring well in older formats, and this one certainly fits the bill. I have played against tons of multiplayer Commander decks, and I barely see any that doesn't have this on their list. Casual crowds and hardcore EDH players are foil addicts, and I don't see why this isn't a good investment at $150 with the art that was used for it. I would be investing on this right now while it's not that hot.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Demonic Tutor

Another one of those cards that is more appealing to the casual crowd, I was surprised that this was more expensive than Mana Vault at $180. It's arguably the best tutor out there as it has no drawback and is another auto include in every Commander deck that plays black. I would also be paying $180 for the topper, as it seems that the Judge Foil version has gone bananas at around $275. The ultimate battle between this version and the Judge foil would mostly rely on art preference by players. I am slightly biased towards the artwork on this one.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cavern of Souls

The last card I would like to talk about today would be Cavern of Souls, which is sitting at around $206 as of writing time. One argument that could be made for this case was how more people preferred the Avacyn Restored version over the newer art (which was the one used for UMA and MM3) and how it was able to maintain its price tag due to preference. I think that the way the box toppers were made gave this version an edge over the old school foil, and the price tag is justified for me if we are to invest in it. $200 is somehow fair in my opinion, but it would be great if you could snag copies for a lower price. It should be $250-$300 if the demand continues in the coming months.

And that’s it for the first part of this special edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we continue my review of more box toppers from the UMA set. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

What to Watch: 2019 Banlist Candidates

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Every few weeks, speculation begins to rise about the next Banned and Restricted Announcement. Whenever something actually does happen, I frequently see laments over being blindsided and calls for Wizards to implement a banning watchlist. While an official list will never happen as it would unduly influence the secondary market, I do think it useful to consider what might happen. Today, I'm going to make my own banning watchlist.

Truth be told, I don't expect anything to be banned or unbanned in the foreseeable future of Modern. Modern averages one unban every two years. Since 2018 saw two cards released, I'd be floored if anything else came off before 2020. The format is in a reasonably good place given the ebb and flow of deck speed, and nothing is dominating or consistently degenerate enough to justify action. Therefore, I have no reason to believe that whatever supposedly dangerous deck cannot be answered just by format adaptation.

However, there are cards that could be dangerous if the stars align next year. It will take a combination of the right printing, the right deck, widespread player adoption, or the right metagame shift to happen, but I think some cards are very close to getting the axe. By the same token, some cards are frequently discussed, but I cannot imagine them actually getting banned.

The Watchlist

When considering what could or should be banned in Modern, it's important to remember Wizards' goals. They want a fun and diverse format to provide long-term value for Standard collections. As far as metagame speculation and competitive players are concerned, the important goals are diversity and speed. Wizards wants as many decks to be competitive as possible, and doesn't like non-interactive, consistent kills before turn four.

It is also important to note that Wizards tends to focus bans on enablers and engine cards rather than on payoffs. I don't think this has ever been explicitly stated, but a look through the history of bannings certainly lends credence. They also appear to prefer targeted bans against specific problem decks whenever possible, though that frequently isn't possible, as many problem cards happen to be splashed into multiple decks.

Faithless Looting

2018 has arguably been the year of Faithless Looting. Every time a new deck emerged it seemed to include the red draw spell. Mardu Pyromancer, Hollow One, Dredge, Bridgevine, Arclight Red, and numerous fringe strategies have all wielded Looting. In all these decks, the often reads "draw four cards." Tempo and velocity are far more important in Modern than something like card advantage, and there's nothing that facilitates either like Looting. Many Looting decks have been borderline degenerate and certainly unfair, so it makes sense to target the best enabler to make Modern more fair.

Why It Won't Be Banned

All those Looting decks have risen, had some time in the sun, and then faded away. For various reasons, none so far have been able to maintain strong metagame shares for more than a few months. The metagame has proven resilient, adapting and answering each deck in turn. Dredge is already on a downswing as Phoenix decks rise. We don't know if this will be true for Phoenix too, but the bottom line is that no Looting deck has been too much to handle so far.

The only feasible reason to ban Looting would be for its metagame share at this point. However, this argument fails, because the metagame appears to only permit one Looting deck to stand tall at a time. Yes, it appears in many decks that have been Tier 1, but they don't remain there, and mostly fall back into Tier 2-3. Despite appearances, Looting isn't saturating Modern.

How It Could Be Banned

If a brewer finally cracks the code and really unleashes the power of Looting then it might be banned. The Looting decks share a number of similarities that suggest they're not distinct archetypes, but pieces of a greater whole. Players are trying to hybridize Hollow One with UR Phoenix, and on paper that deck is terrifying. However, something is missing that keeps the deck in check. Whether that missing piece is an existing though obscure card or simply doesn't exist yet is impossible to say. If it is found and the potential of Hollow Phoenix is realized, then there could be a problem. A deck that can go huge quickly, attack from multiple angles, and win uninteractively is potentially devastating.

Krark-Clan Ironworks

Ever since Matt Nass's legendary run last spring, the revived Ironworks deck has been looming in player's minds. The deck is usually considered unfun to play against; it's uninteractive and takes forever, which ultimately caused a previous banning. The new version is somewhat faster, more consistent, and integrates a powerful answer in Engineered Explosives. It can beat almost any hate and power through most disruption, and consistently thanks to all the cantrips. Incredibly powerful, fast, resilient, and frustrating combos tend to get banned in Modern.

If Ironworks is to be targeted specifically, then the namesake card is the thing to hit. Krark-Clan Ironworks is an incredibly powerful engine, and the deck doesn't work without it. It also gets dinged because of its weird rules interactions thanks to being a mana ability. Without Ironworks itself, this style of slower, not-quite-deterministic combo isn't viable anymore.

Why It Won't Be Banned

There's absolutely no evidence to say that Ironworks needs a ban. Simply put, Ironworks does not have the metagame presence to justify Wizards taking action. In addition, tournaments haven't had the same problems because of Ironworks as Eggs caused.

Whether it should go because of the rules complication is irrelevant. Wizards only bans weird cards when they don't actually work within normal Magic, like Chaos Orb. Modern itself is chock-full of quirky interactions. Players who participate in competitive Magic should have enough of a grasp on the rules to understand how Ironworks actually works so that's not a reason to ban a card.

How It Could Be Banned

The main reason that players haven't adopted Ironworks, even real combo players, is the stigma surrounding it. Much like Amulet Bloom before it, Ironworks is notoriously hard to play. There is a lot that goes into the combo and its numerous loops, which translates into mental strain. Over the course of a tournament, that all adds up. This is all well known, and very intimidating for those who might pick Ironworks up. A lot of players don't want to put in the time and effort necessary to learn the deck, so it has never had the metagame share its supposed power level suggests it should.

If this stigma is overcome, as many think it should be, then Ironworks might finally gain the metagame share to be a threat. The deck is certainly strong and resilient enough to really take over, as previously mentioned. The only hate that Explosives can't answer is Stony Silence, for which Ironworks plays four Nature's Claim. If players are finally prompted to pick up the deck in high numbers, then Wizards may need to take action.

Bridge from Below

On the basis that it has a negligible metagame presence, Bridge from Below certainly doesn't warrant any action. However, it is closer than the statistics indicate. As we saw over the summer, decks abusing Bridge and Vengevine are capable of blistering starts and of winning on turns 2-3. Bridge is the key to those wins, and intrinsic to the viability of those decks.

The normal gameplay for Bridge decks is to use some enabler to get Vengevine into the graveyard and then into play turn 1-2. This is done by paying 0 for cards like Endless One and Walking Ballista to trigger the plant. With a Bridge also in the 'yard, those enablers turn into 2/2 Zombies, allowing Bridge decks to present ridiculous amounts of power, ridiculously early. Throw in a Goblin Bushwacker and you've got a ridiculous kill turn.

Why It Won't Be Banned

The key is consistency, which is why the deck has virtually disappeared despite all the attention it received. Those ridiculously explosive turns are very hard to pull off in practice. The enablers are good, but not good enough to really break the deck. Looting and Stitcher's Supplier aren't enough to fix a mediocre hand on their own, because the deck needs a lot of pieces to get going. It usually takes multiple enablers and some luck to really set the deck on fire. If anything goes slightly wrong, or a promising start fails to pan out, the deck is mediocre at best. It's glass cannon with a faulty ignition and just doesn't have much success as a result. Therefore, no action is necessary.

How It Could Be Banned

If the right enabler or another payoff card for Bridgevine gets printed, then Bridge from Below could get banned. It could be some improvement to Supplier, or a new and better way to trigger Vengevine; anything to reduce the gulf between Bridgevine's best and worst starts. The key to making the deck dangerous is improving its consistency, and considering that Wizards was willing to make Supplier this year following the Golgari Grave-Troll ban, it's quite possible.

If Bridgevine becomes a problem, Bridge will get banned for two reasons. First and most important is that it is the key to those crushing starts. A couple 4/3's on turn two is threatening, but can be efficiently answered with Reflector Mage or Path to Exile. Add in a Zombie swarm and the only real answer is a sweeper, which very few decks have these days. Bridge is the card that really makes the mediocre creatures dangerous, and so is the best enabler.

The second reason is that doing so would also be a targeted ban. Bridge has never been a fair card, instead being a combo piece; just compare Modern Dredge to Legacy.

What Won't be Banned

I was surprised by how short my list was, especially considering how many cards I've railed against over the years. However, the metagame is in a pretty good place, and shifts over the past year have largely eliminated many cards from contention. It's not impossible for the cards to become dangerous, as anything can be printed. However, the circumstances that need to align to make it happen are so unlikely as to be implausible in the near future. Therefore, I'll argue that these cards will not be banned, nor should they be, and players should stop considering them.

Ancient Stirrings

 I despise this card. I'm clearly not alone. It is such a powerful cantrip; the most powerful ever in the right shell. Considering that Preordain and Ponder are already banned, it's incredibly unfair that the arguably unfair colorless decks get a one mana Impulse. To keep Tron and artifact combo down, many believe Stirrings should be banned.

The Reality

It pains me to say this, but the chances of Ancient Stirrings getting banned are remote at best. The only deck that really needs Stirrings and can play it is Tron, and Tron just isn't the threat it used to be. Stirrings sees a lot of play, but in most decks is replaceable. Ironworks and Lantern could easily play another bauble effect and barely feel anything. Hardened Affinity doesn't always play Stirrings. The only reason to hit Stirrings anymore is to kill Tron, which really needs the consistency to remain viable in an increasingly hostile world.

What Needs to Change?

Tron needs to really take over, which is beyond unlikely, or some new degenerate deck must emerge that really abuses and relies on Stirrings. As colorless-matters was largely a mistake and won't return in numbers for a while, this seems very unlikely.

Mox Opal

It has been argued since Modern became a thing that it is unfair for Affinity to get a Mox and nobody else. Affinity's most explosive starts are all thanks to Mox Opal, and now other hated decks like Lantern and Ironworks use it too. Fast mana is a problem, so should there be any Moxen in Modern?

The Reality

There isn't anything in the current cardpool that uniquely supercharges Opal to the point that a ban is justified. Right now, the artifact decks aren't taking over the metagame, and old-school Affinity is barely a deck anymore. If the Hardened Scales version proves too good (unlikely), it makes far more sense to ban Scales itself, since it's what actually facilitates its overwhelming starts.

I would argue that the only thing keeping artifact aggro remotely viable at the moment is the acceleration from Opal. No other deck has access to a Mox, despite some noble attempts with Mox Amber, and there isn't really another reason to play artifacts over normal aggro. Affinity is so vulnerable to hate and clunking out that it needs the speed boost. In this way, Opal contributes to format diversity.

As for combo applications, namely Ironworks, Opal is a merely nice addition. I've discussed Opal's impact on the deck before, and it's a fine bonus, but not the real power card. The acceleration is often marginal. As I said above, if Ironworks requires a ban, it makes the most sense to just axe its namesake.

What Needs to Change?

In short, another artifact block. There needs to be some kind of new artifact payoff or deck that really abuses Opal's acceleration, but only needs to have its explosiveness specifically reduced. At this point, a currently existing deck justifying a ban is unlikely. Considering how often artifact-themed sets get Wizards into trouble, and how aware they are of this fact, it's pretty unlikely that they'll make such a set for some time nor include pushed artifacts in a regular set.

Expect Nothing

As mentioned, these are the cards that could potentially get banned. I don't think there's much of a reason to think they will, nor that anything will happen with the Modern Banned and Restricted List in 2019 period. It is always fun to speculate, but if history has taught us anything, the banlist is in for another uneventful year.

Have Ultimate Masters Reprints Already Bottomed?

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Shortly after the spoiling of the Ultimate Masters box toppers, I panicked and buylisted my personal playset of Ancient Tombs to ABUGames. I netted around $42-$45 in store credit per copy, varying by condition, which I value at roughly $25 a copy in real money.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ancient Tomb

The next day, Ultimate Masters was announced and I celebrated my sage decision. Surely, I would be able to reacquire these at a serious discount to their previous market price, right? Don’t prices drop precipitously when cards are reprinted in a Masters set (especially the rares)?

Like everyone else, I began watching prices closely to try and time the bottom. I even received multiple inquiries on Twitter asking for my prediction for when the bottom in prices would occur. Not being a fortune teller, however, I could only provide a less-than-useful answer involving watching the market closely and knowing the time has come when I see it.

Ancient Tomb dropped to around $16.50 on TCGplayer. I considered buying back copies then but wanted to get them a little cheaper. Then it happened.

Price Rebound

Now the cheapest copy on Ancient Tomb from Ultimate Masters is $21 shipped. That’s a nearly $5 rebound in less than ten days. What happened?!

It appears the most in-demand cards have already rebounded in price. When I look at the top movers over the past week on MTG Stocks, I see nearly 30 Ultimate Masters cards have gained at least 5%. We’re not just talking about the most in-demand mythic rares here, either. There are plenty of regular rares that have rebounded healthily since their initial declines. Back to Basics, which fell the furthest upon reprinting, has rebounded a whopping 49.5% off its lows.

Now I’m left scratching my head—weren’t prices supposed to drop steadily for at least a few weeks? Have we even found peak supply and passed it yet? These are questions I’m struggling to answer. When they released Iconic Masters in November 2017, a card like Horizon Canopy dropped in price for five consecutive months before rebounding. How could Ultimate Masters cards rebound after just a week and a half?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Horizon Canopy

Even more extreme is a card like Rishadan Port. The Masters 25 reprint came out in March of this year and still hasn’t rebounded a penny after nine months on the market. In fact they’re just about at their all-time low (actually, now could be a great time to get your personal copies).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rishadan Port

What in the world makes Ultimate Masters so special?!

Possible Answers

As I rack my brain trying to understand how Ultimate Masters cards could rebound so quickly, I can come up with a couple (admittedly simple) hypotheses.

Hypothesis 1: This set is the original Modern Masters all over again.

When the initial Modern Masters set was released in 2013, demand far outstripped supply. There was also so much pent-up demand for reprinted cards like Tarmogoyf that reprints were immediately absorbed into the market. Thus prices on the most desirable cards did not have sufficient opportunity to retract.

Is Ultimate Masters such a hit that the same thing is happening yet again? I don’t think this explains 100% of what is going on because plenty of reprints in Modern Masters did see a notable drop. Cryptic Command stayed low for half a year before soaring back up in price, for example.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptic Command

Hypothesis 2: This rebound is only temporary.

Could it be that players are rushing to get their copies now while cards are hot, forgetting that this kind of price rebound on Masters sets normally takes six months? In many cases, reprinted cards have been flat for about half a year before seeing a bounce in price again. Karn Liberated is a great example from Modern Masters 2015.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn Liberated

Karn’s reprint in Ultimate Masters appears to have bottomed at $55 and is now selling for $65 already. But maybe what we’re observing here is only noise? Maybe when this chart stretches out another six months, the Ultimate Masters copies will continue their downfall or, at worst, remain flat until February like we’ve seen in previous years.

Hypothesis 3: The Ultimate Box Toppers are skewing things.

This is the first Masters set that also contained Ultimate Box Toppers. That means when you buy a box, you get a bonus, valuable card along with the booster packs. I would have expected these box toppers to absorb some of the EV, causing prices on the regular copies to tank further. But this hasn’t happened. Instead, booster box prices have climbed.

Are these box toppers muddling things? Are players using their box toppers to trade for regular copies, keeping prices higher? I don’t fully understand what’s happening, but perhaps there are some confounding effects here.

My Plan Going Forward

I don’t know what to think at this point, honestly. I still want to reacquire a set of Ancient Tombs but at this point the price isn’t low enough to tempt me. Since I’m in no rush whatsoever, I think I’ll continue to wait it out.

While it seems Ultimate Masters prices are deviating somewhat from history, I still rely on past data to help me strategize going forward. In most cases of the past, when a Masters set is released it takes about six months for prices to rebound. Out of my hypotheses presented above, I’m inclined to believe in hypothesis 2 the most. That is, I think the “rebounds” we’re seeing now are mostly noise and will soon cease.

Perhaps over the holidays there will be more opportunity to buy at better prices. But what most likely will happen is that prices will stop moving and flatline for a few months before returning higher. This may mean I missed the absolute bottom, but should have plenty of time to buy at somewhat lower prices. It pains me to think my timing was bad, but I’ll take solace in the fact that I don’t necessarily have to rush going forward.

Now if it’s the box toppers you’re after, I have different advice. These are getting all kinds of attention from MTG financiers on social media. Remember when everyone in MTG finance told you to buy Masterpieces and buyouts ensued daily? Something like that could easily happen again with the box toppers. For this reason, you need to remain extremely vigilant, perhaps prioritizing their acquisition over other cards if you desire them.

Personally, I detest foils and have little interest in these box toppers. I’ll probably use this quiet season to acquire more Beta cards for my collection. But if you want these box toppers, you may want to look at buying them very soon. There are only a couple dozen of each in stock on TCGplayer (some have even less)—sound familiar?

These are very desirable and it’ll only take one MTG finance personality on a podcast to tell people to buy these to cause a buyout. Card Kingdom has a bunch of these on their hotlist, and they are probably struggling to keep them in stock. These may be great targets with trade credit for a long-term hold. Just make sure you stick to the most in-demand ones and avoid the chaff.

Wrapping It Up

Because I focus on Old School and Reserved List cards in my portfolio, I detest nothing more than getting hosed by a reprint. This is why I cashed out of my personal playset of Ancient Tombs once their reprint was announced. I thought I was being clever for this move.

It turns out my move was barely portfolio-accretive because these cards have not dropped nearly as much as I had hoped. My goal was to reacquire a playset for around $50—about half what I got for trading them in (with adjustment factor for ABUGames’s inflated credit numbers). Now it looks like I may barely make $20 in this endeavor.

But at this point, there is little reason to panic-buy. We may have missed the absolute bottom, but I don’t think prices will rebound much more from this point. Looking at historical data, it looks like it takes about six months for real rebounds in price to occur. It could certainly happen faster given how hot Ultimate Masters is, but I think it’s perfectly reasonable for me to wait for the next eBay coupon at this point.

The exception would be if you want box toppers or sealed product. These are still quite sparse, and if the right MTG finance personality starts hyping them up you could see sporadic buyouts. Since I don’t care for them, I’m going to ignore them. But if you want cards for cubes or Commander, I’d suggest making these a priority right away.

Lastly, I leave you with a word of caution: we don’t know what the print run on these are and we don’t know if WotC will suddenly announce a second wave like they had with some previous Masters sets. Should that occur, it could punish those making purchases now rather than waiting. Given how popular this set is and how eager Hasbro is for profits, it wouldn’t surprise me if there was a new wave announced. Either way, I’m going to sit on the sidelines a little longer.

Even if these cards rebound another couple bucks, the majority of the profits won’t be made until the reprints are completely absorbed a few months from now. In the meantime, I see no reason to rush. Given how many Reserved List and Old School cards have retracted in price these past few months, I’d much rather put my money to work there anyway.

Sigbits

  • There are a dozen Ultimate Box Toppers on the first page of Card Kingdom’s hotlist. I imagine there are more further back. As I said, these are very hot right now—that could mean buyouts to come and many profits to be made, or it could be prices are inflated right now and they will retract once the hype subsides. I believe MTG finance personalities will ensure it’s the former and not the latter.
  • For the first time in a while, I see dual lands on Card Kingdom’s hotlist. But it’s not the Revised versions. Instead, Card Kingdom seems to be aggressively after copies from Collectors’ Edition. They’re paying $105, $95, and $95 for Savannah, Plateau, and Taiga, respectively.
  • Erhnam Djinn from Arabian Nights has been on Card Kingdom’s hotlist for a couple weeks now, and their buy number is up to $170. It was lower than this for the longest time, though I think we are far from its peak numbers back when the Old School buyouts were rampant. Still, this is a legitimately desirable card from Arabian Nights, and I expect it to rise in price further come this spring.

The Banlist in 2019: My Christmas Wishlist

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When it comes to Modern, I'm always up for a surprise. I penned an article last week declaring the death of midrange as a Tier 1 strategy in an aggro-combo metagame. But it seems the meta has already corrected itself: last weekend's GP Portland Top 8 featured a finals between Grixis Death's Shadow and BG Rock, with each deck representing one of Modern's definitive midrange pillars. The two Izzet Phoenix strategies to crack the Top 8 each ran 3 Crackling Drake, making them as midrange-leaning as possible. And UB Faeries also secured a spot, yielding a Top 8 over 50% midrange, parameters depending.

That my article premise was proven faulty so quickly has a couple of significant upsides. More personally, it signals that Colorless Eldrazi Stompy will be exceptionally well-positioned in the coming weeks, as midrange continues to ascend before being usurped by Tron and other predators of the archetype. Second, it speaks volumes to Modern's ability to self-regulate, and to the format's current health.

With great health comes great potential for unbans, and I think Wizards may consider finally freeing some of the more controversial cards on the list this coming year. Today, I'll reveal my unban wishlist for 2019, and also consider some of the more divisive cards I think may have a chance in Modern.

Unban Wishlist

These are the three cards I'd like to see released in 2019.

1. Stoneforge Mystic

First up is a card I don't want to play with so much as play against. Most Modern players seem to agree that Stoneforge Mystic is of an appropriate power level for Modern, and I count myself among them. I didn't play Standard when Caw-Blade was legal, but I think it's safe to say Modern now is much stronger than Standard was then. Since I'm comfortable facing down turn-one Hollow Ones and turn-two Thought-Knot Seers, I'm just not that scared of a turn-three Batterskull.

Stoneforge best slots into goodstuff-oriented fish decks, of which we have very few in Modern; our fish decks lean more heavily toward tempo than midrange, with Spirits and Humans the primary exemplars. Neither of those decks can easily accommodate Stoneforge, whose uncommon creature types complicate integration with a tribal strategy. That leaves lower-tier fish decks like Death & Taxes and Hatebears.

While both of those strategies do play white, I've heard diehards of each express mixed feelings about the Kor Artificer. On the one hand, it injects some raw grinding power into the strategy. But these decks tend to focus on disrupting opponents with tax effects or generating value via more dedicated and synergistic means; Stoneforge does neither of these things.

All that's left is control, which in its current forms either prefers the multi-purpose applications of reach (Jeskai) or is prevented from running such creatures thanks to tension with Terminus (UW). Jeskai is the likelier home for Stoneforge of the two, as the deck has already looked to Spell Queller and Geist of Saint Traft this year as alternate win conditions. As Stoneforge attacks from a different angle than those creatures, I imagine it would merely diversify the wedge's possible threat suite.

My prediction is that Stoneforge would mostly create or revitalize nonexistent decks like Zoo, Abzan Rock, and Stoneblade, which translates as a net win for Modern diversity. I doubt any of these strategies would break into the top tier, but they would at least have their matchups improved with the introduction of such a decent card.

2. Preordain

I have argued for a Preordain unban before—as a solution to a broken metagame. With Golgari Grave-Troll and Gitaxian Probe legal, the format was much faster and linear than usual. Wizards ended up banning the offenders instead.

Modern has again sped up, and I again don't think Wizards will ban the enablers (arguably, Faithless Looting and Ancient Stirrings); the cards are not violating format rules or causing diversity issues, nor are they instigating a "battle of sideboards," the rationale for banning Grave-Troll. Both of those cards, however, are cantrips, and ones which grant their respective decks unparalleled one-mana selection. Opt is also a cantrip, and has supplanted Serum Visions in a variety of archetypes ranging from control to Delver variants.

I think adding Preordain to the card pool would further cut into Serum's shares, but that card is still the most played cantrip in Modern, and would probably continue to see play on its own merits; Preordain is a better Sleight of Hand, not Serum Visions (although it is indeed stronger than the Fifth Dawn scryer).

Our testing indicates that Preordain does not significantly power up combo decks, which is what it was banned for in the first place. Of course, Storm and other combo decks might still play it. But I think the largest effect Preordain would have in Modern is granting additional consistency to blue aggro-control decks. The riskiest thing about this unban is its potential effect on Arclight Phoenix strategies, which I'll concede could prove problematic with a critical mass of high-impact blue cantrips; we'll have to see how the metagame shakes out after those decks begin to lose favor.

3. Green Sun's Zenith

Speaking of Modern Nexus banlist testing, David recently completed a series on Green Sun's Zenith, too. His is not optimistic about the card's chances. But I am!

While David's data reveals that Elves, the test deck, significantly improved with Zenith in the picture, it cannot predict whether that deck would be strong enough to secure a top-tier position in Modern, or how other decks would adapt to its presence. As things stand, Elves is not a consistently performing deck (although one copy did make it into the Portland Top 8). I don't think even giving it a significant buff would usher in Tier-0 format. Modern can self-regulate!

Wizards originally banned Zenith because it homogenized green decks, but I don't think it would do that anymore. Collected Company, Chord of Calling, and Eldritch Evolution are all played in some capacity in Modern, frequently alongside some removal spells and a heavy set of creatures. The three cards are never played together. Zenith would add a fourth option in this style of deck, giving them the ability to toolbox. But it's not necessarily better in any of them than Company, Chord, or Evolution. I believe Zenith would further diversify green creature-combo decks.

While Chord and Evolution mostly just fit into these kinds of decks, Zenith could also work in a midrange or aggressive shell, as does Collected Company. Personally, I would be stoked to try it in GRx Moon.

Those Who Must Not Be Named

There's some stigma surrounding the more overtly powerful cards on the banlist. Some cards are well at home there, and those fall into four categories:

  • Cards that violate the Turn 4 Rule (Blazing Shoal, Chrome Mox, Rite of Flame, Seething Song, Dark Depths, Hypergenesis, Glimpse of Nature)
  • Cards that break existing strategies (Cloudpost, Dread Return, Golgari Grave-Troll, Summer Bloom, Eye of Ugin)
  • Cards that lead to time issues (Sensei's Divining Top, Second Sunrise)
  • Cards that are plain busted (Umezawa's Jitte, Deathrite Shaman, Treasure Cruise, Gitaxian Probe, Mental Misstep, Ponder, Skullclamp)

Is your pet banned card missing from the above lists? Read on to see why I think their time in Modern may be approaching.

1. Artifact Lands

With Affinity largely supplanted by the color-intensive Hardened Scales, Ironworks standing to gain zero turns of speed, and Stony Silence already a hugely popular sideboard card, I'm not sure the artifact lands are that dangerous anymore. I would like to see them come off to test the waters. Who knows? They might even enable some durdly Trinket Mage packages, or at the very least more cool Mox Opal decks! Modern is full of artifact support that's too color-intensive to work alongside the largely colorless manabases imposed by Darksteel Citadel (*ahem* Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas), and I'd like to see those cards be given fair trial.

2. Punishing Fire

Punishing Fire was banned for keeping creature decks out of the format. So was Wild Nacatl, which not coincidentally resisted Fire while still costing one mana. Nacatl has been freed, and I'm not so sure Fire still has a place on the list.

While the card lines up well against cards like Noble Hierarch (Modern's most-played creature), it doesn't line up so well against most creature decks. Attacking strategies have gotten around Bolt and Push with cost-reduced fatties like Gurmag Angler, Bedlam Reveler, and Hollow One; creature-combo decks fade disruption with Chord of Calling and Postmortem Lunge. And of course, Fire does very little against decks without creatures.

Fire's biggest weakness is how slow it is. Two mana to conditionally remove a creature is extremely steep in Modern. It also hurts that the card has no proper home; Tron has abandoned red, and the only remaining Grove of the Burnwillows decks are RG Eldrazi (itself a lower-tier strategy) and Ironworks. I doubt either of these decks would be very interested in Punishing-Grove, as they are both quite proactive.

Jund has proven itself a solid contender in this metagame, and could potentially wield the combo. But I think doing so exacerbates the deck's worst quality: it's difficult to find the right answers at the right time. Opening Fire against a creature-light opponent means one less card with which to actually fight what that opponent is doing. There's also the question of speed; many existing creature decks will swiftly punish Jund for opening interaction this medium.

3. Dig Through Time

Dig Through Time was never really given its spotlight in Modern, being vastly outshone by Treasure Cruise while legal. The card saw more use in Legacy Miracles decks. I think that format, which both has stronger delve enablers and is more card-advantage driven than Modern, can make better use of Dig. It's possible that the card doesn't do much in this format. I know I would hate to be on a reactive deck with Digs in hand against a blazing-fast start from one of Modern's many aggro-combo strategies. And what decks would play it? UW Control, which is now falling out of favor?

The main danger with Dig is not the combo decks that might play it (the only ones are Tier-4-and-below strategies we needn't worry about), but the aggro-combo decks, as with Treasure Cruise and Gitaxian Probe. But Dig's color-intensive mana cost makes it better-suited to aggro-control shells like Delver, which could also use a hand in the format. These decks all use the graveyard in some way (often with delve creatures like Gurmag Angler), and would then need to make some sacrifices to run Dig. I'm interested in seeing those developments occur.

4. Birthing Pod

This inclusion represents a shift in how I look at the banlist. I once argued against the odds of Jace, the Mind Sculptor coming off the banlist for the reason that it messes with future design: the bar for Modern-playable blue walkers is significantly raised with Jace in the format. Wizards has shown that this predicament is not so important to them, meaning they are happy to unban cards for the reason that they are at an appropriate power level for Modern.

One argument against Birthing Pod was that it limited future card design: Wizards will always print pushed creatures, and each of those creatures makes the Pod deck better. But plenty of cards "limit future design" in one way or another. I now think it's best to ban problem cards when they become problems, as they did with Pod. So what about when Pod isn't a problem anymore?

I can envision a time when Modern's powerful spells (Fatal Push, Lightning Bolt, etc.) and synergies (the new crop of velocity-fueled aggro-combo decks, etc.) trump whatever Birthing Pod has to offer. After all, the card sees virtually no play in Legacy, where the power level has outgrown this type of effect. That format has even more powerful creatures than Modern, something that will never change!

5. Splinter Twin

Of these options, I think Twin is the least safe for Modern. There's a solid precedent for the deck being oppressive, especially over long stretches of time, and Modern is unarguably more diverse now than it ever was with Twin in the picture. But like Pod, Twin does nothing in Legacy, and as Modern's power level rises, I can see it being considered for an unban; after all, it doesn't break any format rules on its own.

That said, I wouldn't count on Twin being freed in the new year, as the threat of Twin re-homogenizing blue-based midrange, combo, and control still looms.

Checking It Twice

Do you agree with my assessment? Which cards would you like to see released from the Modern banlist? Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

Insider: Office Hours #3

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Join Edward Eng and Sig Ausfresser for the third installment of QS Office Hours.  For those unfamiliar, this is a live Q&A podcast where Insiders can ask questions of our content creators in the Discord livechat. The content creators provide their answers live through audio, and the whole dialogue is recorded! Enjoy!

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Hindsight 20/18: Metagame Review

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The Modern metagame cycles, though the process is slow and hard to see. This complicates determining which trends are just flashes in the pan and which must be accounted for and adapted to. Metagame-specific decks, like Death and Taxes at GP Las Vegas 2017, can look like real decks, at times frustrating players trying to predict a field.

Mistakes along those lines are compounded by how players approach their analysis. How and what data is collected has a huge impact on the final analysis and interpretation of those data. Therefore, the metagame will look different to every analyst. To get a more holistic picture, the scope of the data must be accounted for.

Today, I'll discuss this problem in detail and offer a solution. I think the key is not to look at any piece of datum in isolation, but to look for the persistent short-run trends which represent fundamental changes.

Metagame of the Moment

In keeping with the allure of novelty, much metagame discussion focuses on the most recent results and events. That discussion omits critical information about the overall metagame, yielding a warped picture. In that scenario, an analyst would have data from the most recent Modern events, SCG Baltimore and GP Portland (team events don't really count because they don't measure individual deck strength), and produce these data set from their Top 16 results:

Deck NameQuantity
Ux Phoenix6
Grixis Death's Shadow3
Bant Spirits3
Mono-G Tron3
Jeskai Control2
Ironworks2
Infect2
Storm2
UW Control1
Jund1
Mono-W Martyr1
Eldrazi Stompy1
Grixis Prison1
Rock1
Faeries1
Abzan Evolution1
BG Elves1

These data indicates that Arclight Phoenix decks are far and away the best decks in Modern. With twice the representation of the second place deck, this is an obvious conclusion. However, it misses the wider context and fails to account for fluctuations or local warps in population.

The Wider Picture

The real effect that thousands of players grinding matches both in paper and MTGO is hard to see, especially since Wizards began curating its released decklists. This change has certainly accomplished Wizards's goal of obscuring an accurate metagame picture to prevent players from "solving" a given metagame too quickly, all while giving brews more visibility. MTGTop8 has tried to account for the data limitation by casting an international net for paper results. Looking at their results and form a data set of top decks over the past two months (top performing being 3% representation or better) provides the following metagame:

Deck NamePercentage
Spirits8
Dredge7
Humans6
Burn6
Tron6
UW Control5
Affinity4
Jund4
UR Phoenix4
Valakut4
Death's Shadow3
Hollow One3
Jeskai Control3
Ironworks3
Infect3
Storm3

In this metagame, Phoenix is one of many also-rans, and I should worry about Spirits and Dredge first and foremost. Their data is far more robust than previously, which should improve the analysis. However, this is still only tracking very recent changes. Sudden bursts of interest have large effects, increasing the odds of warps.

Taking the Long View

Logically speaking, the most accurate data is the broadest and longest. Therefore, these data for all of 2018 might best represent the metagame.

Deck NamePercentage
Humans8
UW Control7
Burn6
Tron6
Affinity5
Hollow One4
Jund4
Death's Shadow4
Eldrazi Aggro4
Spirits3
Mardu Pyromancer3
Dredge3
Storm3
Valakut3

The problem with such a long-term view is that old and dead trends can strongly influence data. Humans and UW dominated in spring and summer, but have slowed down recently. Nevertheless, they remain at the top of the standings thanks to the older data. Phoenix decks aren't present while Mardu Pyromancer, which has almost completely disappeared by now, maintains a significant metagame presence. Too broad an analysis is just as inaccurate as too narrow.

Looking Beyond the Numbers

There's no one way to view the Modern metagame. The format shifts all the time and nothing stays the same forever. Compare 2017's Grixis-and-Eldrazi-dominated metagame to 2018's reign of control and Humans. Stating data isn't sufficient for an accurate picture; we need to identify the scope and scale of the data clearly to find what is happening within that data and how accurately it describes wider trends.

Perspective

What the metagame looks like depends on how it's looked at. The scope and timeframe of a dataset determines the conclusions that can be derived from that data. In a vacuum, data is just numbers, useless without meaning and context. This analysis can then describe the more persistent and meaningful changes that have happened, which can then be used to predict where the current trends will go.

Where Are We?

Using that strategy to analyze the metagame helps identify how and when shifts happen. One such shift: I would argue that the data show the older, more interactive metagame making way for newer, more linear decks. What this analysis strategy fails to account for is whether recent shifts and trends will last or how they will actually change the metagame long term.

Looking Ahead

The question all this begs is whether its possible, given limitations, to actually anticipate where the metagame is heading and adapt. Only Wizards of the Coast knows if the next few set releases will drop Khans of Tarkir-level bombshells, release Oath of the Gatewatch-level horrors, or do nothing. However, I think it is possible to make educated guesses. Within reasonable limits.

In economics we teach that the long-run is normally aggregated from short-run trends, but those short-run trends that prove persistent actually create the long-run. Anything can happen tomorrow, but it may not matter months from now. It takes something that alters the landscape of possibility to actually change the overall field and the long-run equilibrium, like a new technology replacing the old.

This is equivalent to Humans rising in 2017 to take down Storm, and then proving strong enough to define the 2018 metagame. Therefore, focusing on those more impactful threads should indicate where 2019 is headed.

Spirits vs Humans

Starting at the top, the premier aggro deck of 2018 was Humans by a long shot. Just look back at all the coverage we gave the deck. However, just like Grixis Death's Shadow the previous year, it eventually fell out of favor toward the end of the year as players adapted and learned how to fight back. Unlike Death's Shadow, Humans is also facing competition from a similar deck in Spirits.

On the surface, it appears that Spirits could simply replace Humans. Many have caught on that Spirits is favored head-to-head, and its greater sideboard flexibility is a huge advantage.

However, that isn't the whole story. Spirits is better in a fairer metagame because hexproof and Collected Company are relevant. The more unfair and combo-based things become, the better the cheaper, persistent disruption of Humans gets. Plus, there's a greater likelihood of playable Humans being printed than Spirits.

My prediction is that Spirits will seize and withhold the top aggro deck position from Humans until Storm-style combo starts to rise again. Storm was the reason Humans gained traction in the first place, and there's no reason to think it won't happen again if linear combo resurfaces. Therefore, I predict Spirits will be the default disruptive aggro deck going forward, and Humans the metagame choice when more disruption is necessary.

Graveyard Decks

After a stunning revival, players' enthusiasm for Dredge appears to have cooled. A month ago, Dredge was being praised and getting all the Top 8s. This month, it didn't even Top 16.  This is understandable, as previously players weren't ready and didn't have their graveyard hate. This has been corrected and Dredge is being hated out.

However, you can never fully hate away Dredge, and it will remain a factor in Modern. It simply won't be consistent. What I saw over 2018 was a proliferation of graveyard decks, then a reaction which has slowly pushed them back. While players are more conscientious of the need for hate, as they should be, the immediacy will fade and the Dredge Cycle will begin anew. I don't expect Dredge to maintain any presence at the top of the metagame in 2019, but it will always lurk in the background and strike when nobody's looking, just as Affinity did for years. My advice: don't fear Dredge, but don't forget it, either.

Control Remains

I have every confidence that UWx Control will remain a major player in Modern next year. What form it will take is impossible to say. Straight UW has certain advantages over the other variants, as they do over UW, and the overall metagame will decide which is best. In any case, UWx simply has too many tools at this point to disappear into Tier 3. Whatever happens to the metagame, control has the means to counter it and pull ahead on cards, be it with planeswalkers, and Ancestral Vision, or Terminus. I believe that Jeskai will be the version of choice as the value of Anger of the Gods is rediscovered and Terminus loses favor as too uncontrollable.

Workhorses

Burn and Jund were solid decks all year long, with their short- and long-term numbers being equal. They're not flashy or particularly press-worthy, but they clearly get the job done. Therefore, I expect them to remain players in roughly the same proportion though the next year. Burn will always be around, ready to pounce on greedy painful mana and slower, uninteractive decks.

Jund's been boosted by Bloodbraid Elf and it's closer to actually being ~50% against everything, even Tron, as a result. Don't forget these decks in the glow of the popular decks and Hottest New Thing. Mastery and practice are the cornerstones of Modern success, and Jund and Burn pilots have plenty of both.

Affinity is also holding fairly strong, though not in the same form as it started. Only traditional Arcbound Ravager Affinity roamed at the beginning of the year, but Hardened Scales now dominates the robot world. While somewhat less explosive than the older version, Scales makes up for it by being far more overwhelming. The problem, I'm told, is that without the namesake card, Scales Affinity can be quite clunky. Despite this, the fact that it's less vulnerable to Stony Silence remains a huge plus.

I believe that Scales will be the default Affinity deck for this reason. However, I think that its overall stock will fall over time unless the problem of of missing Hardened Scales can be fixed. Without that explosive boost, it appears to be too inconsistent for long-term success.

The Unknown

Up next is Arclight Phoenix. Phoenix's similarities to Hollow One are striking, and while data show that deck doing well overall, its been declining recently. Phoenix appears to have improved the strategy by removing the random discards, and recent wins and coverage give it the visibility to draw in players. However, the deck is very new and feels unfinished. This may not be a problem, as the high-velocity, low-threat style deck is popular in Legacy and players have wanted it to work in Modern for some time. They'll find the right list, and Phoenix will see play for the foreseeable future. The question is whether it will remain a relevant part of the metagame, and I'm skeptical.

I think Phoenix decks must answer two questions. The first is whether the card can survive increased attention. Phoenix decks get most of their value by burning through their deck and then smashing with several hasty birds early. When that doesn't happen, the deck just durdles until it makes a big but very vulnerable threat in Awakened Horror or Crackling Drake.

Players will soon learn that taxes are effective at beating the engine. Jund will discover that Surgical Extraction on Arclight Phoenix, and Fatal Push on everything else, is crippling. Any deck can dance on stage, but only a few can withstand the spotlight. If Phoenix can't withstand actual scrutiny, it will fall into niche status.

The other question is survival. Faithless Looting has been enabling some pretty ridiculous stuff, from Hollow One to Dredge to Phoenix this year. It's definitely on Wizards's radar as potentially bannable (even if only because of players screaming about it). In the possible-though-unlikely event that Looting gets axed, can Phoenix decks survive? In their current form, probably not; there's nothing else as efficient for digging and dumping Phoenixes.

Change is Constant

Nothing remains fixed forever. Things will happen in the Modern metagame that nobody can predict, because there are always surprises in a Magic year. However, analyzing current trends provides some guidance, and watching for trends that persist over time provides a more accurate metagame picture. My advice for reading and watching the metagame is to have some perspective and not get swept up in the hype.

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